As Heatwaves Intensify, Will Europe’s Energy Systems Withstand the Soaring AC Demand?

Image Credit Hitachi

Is the world getting hotter? The answer is clear. With temperatures and humidity on the rise, people are increasingly turning to one solution: air conditioning.

In the United States, nearly nine out of ten households already rely on AC, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In contrast, only about 5 percent of UK homes have any form of cooling system, according to data from the Building Services Research and Information Association. This gap is beginning to close, however, as Europe experiences rapid warming.

A continent under pressure

The European Environment Agency warns that Europe is the fastest-warming continent on the planet. Rising temperatures are placing critical systems, including food security, energy supply, water resources, financial stability, and human health, at risk.

Extreme weather events like heatwaves, drought, wildfires, and flooding are set to worsen in Europe even under “optimistic global warming scenarios”, states the EAA.

“Our new analysis shows that Europe faces urgent climate risks that are growing faster than our societal preparedness,” notes Leena Ylä-Mononen, EEA Executive Director.

Image Credit: EEA. Leena Ylä-Mononen, EEA Executive Director

“To ensure the resilience of our societies, European and national policymakers must act now to reduce climate risks both by rapid emission cuts and by strong adaptation policies and actions.

The threat extends to ecosystems, infrastructure, and entire economies. At the same time, extreme weather events, such as droughts, flooding, wildfires, and prolonged heatwaves, are predicted to intensify even under relatively optimistic climate scenarios.

The UK is already seeing the effects. Rightmove reports that searches for homes with air conditioning have soared, increasing by more than three times in just one year. Rental searches have also risen sharply, up 74 percent compared to 2021. On 19 July, the hottest day ever recorded in the country, buyer searches for homes with AC surged by 280 per cent, while rental demand nearly tripled.

Globally, the numbers are even starker. The IPCC estimates that 3.6 billion people remain highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Global Commission on Adaptation believes that an investment of $ 1.8 trillion in early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, water management, and similar measures could generate $ 7.1 trillion in avoided losses and broader social and environmental benefits.

Yet UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report for 2023 reveals a significant shortfall. While developing countries may face adaptation costs of up to $ 387 billion per year by 2030, financing reached only $ 32.4 billion in 2022.

In 2023, António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, said: “Storms, fires, floods, drought and extreme temperatures are becoming more frequent and more ferocious, and they’re on course to get far worse.”

António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations

“Lives and livelihoods are being lost and destroyed, with the vulnerable suffering the most.

“Adaptation plans must be transformed into investment plans, with new collaborative models that bring together governments, funders, development partners, and civil society.”

Lessons from across the Atlantic

The United States has long adapted to extreme climates, which is why homes and buildings are often designed with heating and cooling in mind. Roughly 88 percent of American homes now have air conditioning, and two-thirds of those systems are centralized, according to the Department of Energy.

That convenience comes at a cost. Approximately 12 percent of the electricity used in American households each year is dedicated to cooling, resulting in estimated annual bills of $29 billion. The environmental cost is even higher, as cooling systems are responsible for releasing more than 100 million tonnes of CO₂ annually.

Who is leading the cooling revolution?

Air conditioning is among the most energy-hungry technologies in use today, and Europe’s grids are already stretched thin. The challenge lies in meeting the growing demand while upgrading infrastructure to integrate renewable energy.

"We are investing in next-generation capabilities such as advanced satellite data, innovative AI models, and better ways to share vital safety information with people at sea,” says James Shapland, Head of Regulated Transport Services at the Met Office.

James Shapland, Head of Regulated Transport Services at the Met Office

Professor Kirstine Dale, Chief AI Officer at the Met Office, added: "I think we'll have traditional models running alongside AI models so that we are drawing on their combined strengths to enable hyper-localised, accurate forecasts, delivered fast, when you need them." 

Kirstine Dale, Chief AI Officer at Met Office

At the same time, technology is advancing quickly. The UK Met Office, renowned for its century-old Shipping Forecast, is integrating AI, satellite imaging, and real-time visual tools to enhance accuracy. Global leaders in AI, such as Google’s GraphCast, ECMWF’s AIFS, and Microsoft’s Aurora, are already producing forecasts that outperform traditional models.

On the consumer side, Panasonic Heating and Cooling Solutions reports that 81 percent of units installed in ten European countries now serve both heating and cooling needs, indicating a clear shift toward all-season comfort systems. Its Aquarea air-to-water heat pumps exemplify the new generation of efficient, adaptable solutions for homes and offices.

LG is also prominent, offering a wide range of advanced HVAC systems, from ducted indoor models to VRF and HVRF networks, enabling versatile and efficient climate control. Meanwhile, Hitachi Energy is addressing industrial demand with pure water cooling systems, tailored to different applications that use tap water, glycol, or pure water as the cooling medium.

The question is no longer whether Europe needs cooling solutions, but how quickly sustainable technologies can be deployed at scale. As extreme weather becomes the norm, adaptation will determine whether societies can stay ahead of the risks or continue to fall behind.