Three Steps to Picking a Winner

Patrick Aisher speaking at the Sustainable Startup Investment Summit

Companies poised for “game-changing” success  must possess  much more than innovative ideas, according to Patrick Aisher, Chairman of Kinled Holding, who believes proof, scalability, and timing are critical elements. 

Aisher shared insights based on more than three decades of deep-tech investing at the Sustainable Startup Investment Summit in London.

“Breakthrough companies don’t just invent something new,” he said. “They prove it works, they scale it, and they do it at the right time. That’s when you revolutionise an industry.”

In early October, the summit gathered a community of sustainability-minded founders and investors for an inspiring evening at London’s Plaisterers’ Hall featuring startup pitches and thought-provoking industry panels. 

A century of enterprise

Founded more than 100 years ago, Kinled Holding is a family-owned investment office that Aisher describes as “a balanced ecosystem of innovation”, spanning a range of disciplines. The portfolio is made up of 25% biotechnology, molecular science and drug discovery; 25% medical devices, including robotics and precision medicine; 25% fintech; and 25% digital, SaaS, quantum and AI-related software services.

In total, Kinled manages more than 175 investments across direct holdings and fund partnerships representing around €500 million in assets under management.

Aisher traced his own entrepreneurial roots back to the early 1990s, when he founded and sold three geospatial software companies to Boeing, General Electric and Shell Oil respectively. Those early exits have led to a lifelong focus on transformative technologies. “By the late ’90s, I was investing in what we now call deep-tech. It’s been a 35-year journey that’s taken us from biotech to quantum computing,” he told the audience.

His comments come at a time when deep-tech - innovation that develops technology solutions rooted in solving substantial scientific or engineering challenges - is increasingly viewed as the engine of Europe's next innovation cycle. 

From good to breakthrough

Having achieved more than 50 successful exits, Aisher believes the line between a good company and a breakthrough one is down to three factors: proof, scalability, and timing. “We like good companies, obviously - we don’t always get it right,” he said. “A good company normally has strong products, solid IP and competent execution.” 

But true success, he explained, happens when a business goes beyond solid fundamentals. “A breakthrough company, the kind that creates value change, is one that has customer or clinical proof that its product is game-changing either economically or in the outcomes it delivers at an industrial level.”

Equally important is the management team’s ability to scale that proof. “It’s one thing to show your product works, it's another to prove it works with 100 people, a million, or even 10 million,” Aisher added. The final factor is timing. “It isn’t just luck. It’s about ensuring that regulatory and market pathways are aligned, and that you can scale your product or service at the right moment to meet demand.”

Doubling down on expertise

Kinled’s portfolio stretches from early-stage university spinouts to late-stage pre-IPO rounds, with the firm’s approach influenced by its experience and capabilities.

“We double down where we have internal expertise,” Aisher said. “Life sciences is fun for us because we’ve done it for decades. In newer areas like AI or quantum, we co-invest with specialist funds.”

That collaborative approach has yielded major successes. Over the past year, Kinled co-invested in QANT, Europe’s largest Series B raise in a quantum company at €300 million, and in Black Semiconductor, which raised €600 million alongside the Porsche-Piëch family. “We couldn’t have done it alone,” Aisher noted. “It’s all about strong partnerships.”

As technology cycles accelerate, Aisher credits Kinled’s resilience to its partnerships, notably with the universities and independent fund managers who have helped them to identify emerging trends.

“We’ve worked with over 35 universities worldwide,” he said. “Our fund directors are constantly spotting the next wave, from fintech and insurance-tech to property and real-estate technology.”

Adaptability, he stressed, means not chasing hype. “We’ve been doing machine learning for 15 years in drug discovery - now it’s called AI,” he added with a smile.

Later stage opportunity

Although Kinled has built its reputation as an early-stage investor, it has increasingly expanded into later-stage and pre-IPO rounds, particularly in the United States.

Around 80% of Kinled’s income now comes from later-stage investments. One example is ARIS, a University of Zurich spinout that Kinled first backed at its seed round, when the company was valued at €8 million, and later exited at $1.1 billion in March this year. The firm realised its largest return not at the seed stage but during the Series C round, a result Aisher said demonstrates that early conviction must often be matched with patient, late-stage capital.

As markets evolve and technologies accelerate, Aisher’s philosophy remains grounded in three fundamentals: proof, scalability, and timing. For him, they lay the bedrock for building companies that scale and generate returns for investors.