UK Harvest at Risk After Driest Spring in 50 Years, Experts Warn

Farmers across the UK may be bracing for yet another grim harvest season. This time, it's the result of a record-breaking hot spring combined with some of the driest conditions seen in decades. And according to a new analysis, things could get worse before they get better.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a leading think tank focused on environmental issues, is sounding the alarm. They say climate change is already having a significant impact on agriculture. Crops are suffering. Food prices are rising. And farmers are caught in the middle of it all.

This warning comes at a critical time. The Government is gearing up for a new spending review, and many in the farming and environmental sectors fear that sustainable agriculture funding could be on the chopping block. That kind of decision, critics argue, would undermine efforts to restore nature, build climate resilience into farming practices, and support rural communities.

Martin Lines, who heads the Nature-Friendly Farming Network, did not mince words. He described this year’s arable harvest as being “on a knife edge”. He emphasised that without sustained funding, farmers will be unable to adapt to climate shocks.

Experts agree that nature-friendly farming practices, such as maintaining healthy soil and encouraging natural predators that help control pests, can play a significant role in weatherproofing agriculture. However, these methods need consistent support.

The ECIU has crunched the numbers, and their findings are sobering. Based on current conditions, the main arable crops — wheat, barley, oats, and oilseed — are once again on track for a poor showing. Last year’s harvest was already one of the worst since the 1980s, thanks to the severe rainstorms of winter 2023 and 2024. Now, with this year’s dry spell compounding the problem, things are looking bleak.

Their assessment pulls from the latest crop development data published by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. That report flagged a significant drop in crop health due to the spring drought, saying yield potential had taken a hit, even with some late-season rain. So, what are the possible outcomes? The ECIU looked at three.

In the first, if current crop conditions hold steady, we’ll likely see yields close to last year’s. But because less oilseed rape and spring barley were planted this season, even stable yields could mean 2025 ends up being the second-worst harvest on record.

In the second scenario, if rainfall improves and crop yields bounce back to the 10-year average, we’d still be looking at the seventh-worst harvest since modern records began.

In the worst-case scenario, if crop conditions keep slipping and yields match those from the dismal 2020 season, then this year could go down as the absolute worst UK harvest in over four decades.

The science is clear on why this is happening. Warmer springs are now a hallmark of climate change, which means dry weather during these key growing months causes more damage than it used to. At the same time, the risk of overly wet winters is also increasing, driven by rising global temperatures.

Many of the crops planted this year have already faced setbacks. Torrential rain in September and October delayed winter planting schedules, pushing more sowing into the spring and leaving crops more exposed to the recent dry heat.