Scotland Unveils Bold Carbon Budgets to Drive Net-Zero by 2045

The Scottish Government has unveiled a new set of legally binding carbon budgets that will define the country’s emissions limits from 2026 through to 2045. This latest move reinforces Scotland’s long-standing pledge to reach net-zero emissions by 2045, setting out clear, five-year targets to guide the path forward.

The proposed carbon limits are ambitious. Between 2026 and 2030, greenhouse gas emissions will need to fall by 57 per cent compared to 1990 levels. By the final phase, from 2041 to 2045, that reduction target jumps to 94 per cent. So far, Scotland has already managed to cut emissions by 51.3 per cent since the 1990 baseline.

This new carbon budgeting system will replace the former approach of setting annual and interim targets. This approach has become increasingly fragile in the face of global events, unpredictable weather, and economic volatility. Officials hope the shift to five-year blocks will bring more stability, clarity, and long-term accountability.

Notably, the revised framework will still include emissions from international aviation and shipping, and it will prevent any unused emissions allowances from being rolled over into future periods. In other words, if a target is missed, there is no deferring the damage.

Here is how the carbon caps break down over the coming decades:

• 175 megatonnes from 2026 to 2030

• 126 megatonnes for 2031 to 2035

• 81 megatonnes for 2036 to 2040

• 24 megatonnes for 2041 to 2045

These numbers follow recommendations from the UK’s Climate Change Committee, which had previously criticised Scotland’s earlier goal of cutting emissions by 75 per cent by 2030, calling it “beyond credible” without a robust, fully-costed delivery plan. In April, that overly ambitious 2030 target was officially scrapped.

The newly proposed budgets will now move to the Scottish Parliament for scrutiny and debate, with a vote expected this autumn. If passed, the government will be required to publish a revised Climate Change Plan. This document outlines the strategies, policies, and financial assumptions that will guide the implementation of the first three budget periods.

Recent government data paints a concerning picture. In 2021, Scotland experienced a 15 per cent spike in carbon emissions—the highest single-year increase in over 20 years. A significant chunk of that rise was tied to imported goods. And while these consumption-related emissions aren’t currently counted under Scotland’s climate targets, that may soon change.

Last year, the Scottish Parliament passed a circular economy law that will introduce legally binding consumption-based emissions targets. Environmental campaigners argue that without these new benchmarks, domestic emission reductions will be undermined by the carbon footprint of goods produced abroad but consumed domestically.

WWF Scotland’s head of policy and advocacy, Claire Daly, said: “It’s good to see the Scottish Government has adopted the CCC’s carbon budget and is reaffirming its commitment to reaching net-zero climate emissions by 2045, transforming our economy and improving the lives of people in Scotland.

“However, these commitments will remain merely lines on a page without strong action to back them up. Future generations cannot afford any more missed climate targets, and this carbon budget must be set for success with strong policies to reduce emissions.”