New Analysis Signals End of North Sea Era: UK Heating Demand to Outpace Supply by 2027

Britain’s days of relying on homegrown gas from the North Sea are numbered—and fewer than many realise. According to a new analysis by the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, domestic gas production is plummeting so rapidly that by 2027, the UK will be forced to rely almost entirely on imports to keep homes warm and industries powered.

The numbers paint a sobering picture: in just two years, imported gas will account for over two-thirds of Britain’s total supply. And looking further ahead? Even the approval of new offshore gas fields would do little to change the trajectory. By 2050, the UK is projected to be 94% reliant on foreign gas, despite any efforts to tap remaining reserves.

Official government data further underscores the urgency. Only 14% of the North Sea's original gas reserves are still considered commercially viable. At today’s rate of consumption, the existing fields would barely last three years if used exclusively to meet domestic demand. New fields might add just a few extra months—not decades.

Nevertheless, political rhetoric continues to defy geological reality. At a Durham rally earlier this year, Reform UK’s Nigel Farage insisted Britain should aim to be "self-sufficient" in gas. Across the Atlantic, former U.S. President Donald Trump doubled down, declaring on Truth Social that there’s still "a century of drilling" left beneath the North Sea.

Such claims, however, stand in stark contrast to the data, and to what’s increasingly becoming an energy dependency crisis in the making.

Uplift executive director Tessa Khan said: “Politicians are deliberately and dangerously misleading the public into thinking this country has a secure energy supply in the North Sea, when it is clear we do not.

“The hard truth is that, after 60 years of drilling, the UK has burned most of its gas and no amount of new drilling will change that.

“Our reliance on foreign gas is going to increase unless and until we shift to renewable energy, like wind, which we’re lucky to have in abundance.”