Global Plastic Subsidies Could Balloon to $150 Billion by Mid-Century, Study Warns

Governments around the world provided an estimated eighty billion dollars in subsidies last year to companies producing and processing primary plastic polymers. According to new research, these incentives could enable the industry to collect as much as $150 billion annually by mid-century, if current trends continue.

The findings are from a study conducted by environmental consultancy Eunomia, in partnership with the Quaker United Nations Office. The research examined polymer production in more than seventy countries, focusing on seven of the most widely used materials: high-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, linear low-density polyethylene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, polyvinyl chloride, and polystyrene.

In 2024, global production of these polymers reached approximately 305 million tonnes. Across the seventy-one nations included in the study, governments offered a range of support measures, from tax breaks and guaranteed revenue streams to subsidised energy costs and other forms of financial aid, amounting to $80 billion.

Production is projected to almost double by 2050, reaching 590 million tonnes per year. If subsidies remain unreformed and continue at today’s average levels, they could total one hundred and fifty billion dollars annually by that point.

The analysis examined a range of subsidy types, including support for raw material feedstocks, discounted process energy, grants, in-kind contributions, favourable tax treatment, and financing at below-market rates.

Industry representatives argue that cutting some of these subsidies would lead to steep increases in material costs. Such changes, they warn, would ripple through the value chain, affecting jobs and limiting access to essential products like hygiene supplies, medical packaging, and certain types of food storage.

However, the report’s authors suggest that any impact on consumer prices could be minimal if producers are required to account for the environmental and health costs of their operations. In the case of bottled water, for example, the average price increase might be less than one per cent, and in some scenarios, as low as 0.14 per cent.

UN Negotiations Over a Global Plastics Treaty

The timing of the report is deliberate. It was released during ongoing negotiations in Geneva for a United Nations-backed global treaty aimed at ending plastic pollution. The treaty process began in 2022, and delegates are under pressure to secure a final, ambitious agreement before the close of the current session.

“Not only are public funds being used to prop up virgin plastic production, but taxpayers are also footing the bill for the environmental and health damage plastics cause,” said Professor Sarah Dunlop of Plastics and Human Health. “Every day we delay action, the bill gets bigger.”

Progress has been slow. Previous rounds of talks were hampered by a small but determined group of countries opposed to strong measures. More than one hundred nations now support proposals to limit plastic production at its source, with an even larger group advocating for the treaty to include explicit references to human health.

The health implications are significant. Research published in The Lancet estimates that plastic pollution incurs $1.5 trillion in annual public health costs. Yet the push to curb production has encountered resistance from major producers, including Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. The United States, though no longer a formal participant in UN environmental forums, has also lobbied against these restrictions.

Public Opinion in the United Kingdom

A recent poll of over two thousand British adults shows that public concern over waste and pollution cuts across political divides. Eighty-three per cent of respondents said they see a “throwaway culture” as a significant problem. Nearly seventy per cent indicated they would be willing to make lifestyle changes to reduce waste and help tackle pollution.

The poll was commissioned for the think-tank Green Alliance, where political advisor Charles Long said: “Plastic pollution is one of the most visible symptoms of our throwaway society. People are justifiably outraged by it and expect the international community to reach an agreement after years of fruitless negotiation.”