‘Climateflation’ Could Push UK Food Prices Up by 34% by 2050, Alarming Report Finds

Britain is staring down the barrel of a deepening "climateflation" crisis as increasingly extreme weather threatens to send food prices soaring by over a third within the next 25 years.

In a sobering analysis, the Autonomy Institute warned that climate change is not only a long-term environmental issue but also a growing financial burden for ordinary UK households. The think tank’s latest report suggests that, without urgent intervention, rising food costs could push nearly one million more people below the poverty line.

The threat comes from multiple fronts. Heatwaves, droughts, and unstable weather patterns are expected to impact food production both domestically and globally severely. This disruption, in turn, could drive up prices across UK supermarkets and local shops, further straining already stretched household budgets.

Recent data already paints a concerning picture. Official figures show that in June, inflation unexpectedly climbed to 3.6 per cent. Fuel and food costs were among the main contributors. Meanwhile, retailers across the country have begun to sound the alarm. They report that hot and dry weather has sharply reduced the yields of fruits and vegetables. The price of chocolate has jumped, too, driven by poor harvests in West Africa. Coffee has followed a similar path, with erratic weather conditions slashing output in Brazil and Vietnam.

The Autonomy Institute drew on climate science, trade analysis, and economic forecasting to project the extent to which the problem could become far-reaching. With more frequent heatwaves and droughts on the horizon, the risks to global supply chains are mounting. That could lead to prolonged inflation, especially in everyday essentials.

Scientists continue to warn that the burning of fossil fuels is intensifying the climate crisis, making the UK more vulnerable to sudden floods and prolonged dry spells. With nearly half of all food consumed in Britain imported from overseas, households are exposed to shocks in international supply chains. Any disruption in countries like Spain, France, or Brazil can have swift ripple effects in the United States.

It’s not just global factors that are causing concern. Domestic agriculture is also under pressure. In 2023, UK vegetable production fell by 12 per cent due to a series of storms and floods.

The report warns that if global emissions remain unchecked, food prices in the UK could climb by 34 per cent by 2050. Even under a more optimistic scenario where global warming is capped at 1.5 degrees Celsius, food inflation could still hit 25 per cent.

The impact would not be felt evenly. Lower-income families, who already spend a larger proportion of their income on essentials like bread, meat, and rice, would bear the brunt of the increases. Autonomy estimates that heatwaves alone could add between £917 and £1,247 to the average household's food bill by 2050.

Without strong policy responses, the institute estimates that up to 951,383 more people could be plunged into poverty as a direct result of these price rises.

Will Stronge, chief executive of the Autonomy Institute, called on the government to act decisively. He proposed several targeted measures, including publicly funded diners to provide affordable meals for vulnerable communities. He also urged ministers to explore price controls and the strategic storage of essential goods to cushion the impact of supply chain shocks.

“Climateflation is no longer a distant risk; it’s a present reality,” Stronge said. “We need to build real economic resilience – and that means rethinking what public service provision can and should provide in the face of climate disruption: from delivery of basic essentials to publicly funded diners and a national buffer stock.”