China and EU Step Up with Climate Pact, Sending a Clear Signal as US Pulls Back

China and the European Union have committed to releasing updated decarbonisation plans before this year’s UN-led climate conference. These new strategies will include “just transition” measures aimed at protecting both workers and local communities as countries shift to cleaner economies. The announcement came as leaders from both regions gathered in Beijing to commemorate 50 years of diplomatic ties.

One of the major topics on the table was the upcoming COP30 summit, scheduled for November in Brazil. Both parties issued a joint statement pledging deeper collaboration and support for multilateral climate efforts. This commitment comes at a time when many are seeking renewed leadership, particularly in the wake of the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and its decision to cut off climate funding to the UN.

In their statement, China and the EU stressed the importance of consistency and stability in national climate policies. They emphasised that major economies must ramp up their efforts, even as global politics remain unpredictable. According to the two parties, tackling climate change is not just about policy; it is about safeguarding the well-being of people everywhere.

Last year, the UN issued a stark warning. If countries stick to their current pledges, the planet is still on course for at least 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. Without meaningful change, that number could climb to 3.1 degrees. These projections are measured against pre-industrial temperature levels.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has made it clear: surpassing the Paris Agreement’s targets of 1.5 or 2 degrees would render large parts of the world uninhabitable for billions of people by 2050.

China and the EU are urging all nations to remain actively involved in the UN climate process. They reaffirmed that the Paris Agreement remains the foundation of global climate cooperation.

Both governments have now pledged to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions, commonly referred to as NDCs, ahead of COP30. These plans will outline near-term targets and detailed policy frameworks for reducing emissions, not just long-term aspirations.

The EU aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. China is targeting 2060. Together, these two economies were responsible for over 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023.

Brazil and the United Nations have asked all participating countries to submit updated NDCs covering at least until 2035. As of May, only 21 nations had done so. The UK was among them.

Importantly, China and the EU want their new NDCs to reflect just transition principles. This means placing a strong focus on social equity, including policies that support vulnerable workers and regions most at risk from both climate impacts and economic changes, such as the decline of coal-dependent industries.

Analysts and environmental observers are closely monitoring the next steps. Many are particularly interested in how China will address its expanding coal sector and how the EU plans to mobilise private finance, especially as it reduces public subsidies for renewables and sustainable agriculture in the face of economic pressures.

Warm reaction

Li Shou, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said: “Amid deep divergences across much of the broader bilateral agenda, a joint climate statement from Brussels and Beijing offers a modest but meaningful source of relief.

“Yet, as the summit shows, navigating the increasingly fraught political terrain between ‘de-risking’ and decarbonisation is far from straightforward. Preserving space for future EU–China climate engagement will require careful and sustained effort.”

Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, was more celebratory. She said: “China and the EU committing to work together to help lead a global just transition sends a profound signal to markets and policy makers that climate multilateralism is alive and well despite fossil fuel interests working overtime to try to capture governments and convince the world that climate action isn’t happening.

“Both of these jurisdictions have tied their development and economic growth to the delivery of the Paris Agreement, and their ongoing climate collaboration, even in the midst of geopolitical turbulence, is proof that their green transitions are paying off.”