Britain’s Heat Pump Rollout at Risk as Fewer Installers Enter the Field

Image Credit: Baxi

Only half of the United Kingdom’s heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) installers are currently working with heat pumps. This shortfall limits access to low-carbon heating systems for both homeowners and businesses.

New research from building and infrastructure giant Wavin shows that just 50 percent of HVAC installers in the UK worked on heat pumps during the first quarter of 2025. The figure has slipped from 60 percent in the same period of 2024.

This decline comes even as the government has boosted financial support for households to help cover upfront installation costs. Ministers have also simplified planning rules, making it easier for people to install heat pumps near property boundaries.

At the same time, policymakers are racing to finalise the Future Homes Standard by the end of 2025. This standard is expected to require most new homes in England to come equipped with solar panels and efficient, low-carbon heating systems such as heat pumps.

Despite these top-down policy efforts, Wavin warns that four in ten HVAC installers in the UK remain unprepared for environmental regulations. That gap threatens to slow the rollout of heat pumps in both existing and newly built homes.

The UK also lags far behind its European neighbours in terms of skilled labour. In Germany, more than 80 percent of HVAC installers are trained to work with heat pumps. Wavin surveyed around 650 installers across six European markets, including France, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, the UK, and Germany, and the comparison placed Britain firmly at the back of the pack.

The problem is not just a lack of trained professionals. Demand from consumers remains weak.

Under Conservative leadership, the government pledged to reach 600,000 annual heat pump installations by 2028. Yet the reality tells a different story. Only about 60,000 units were installed in 2024, representing a slight increase from the 55,000 units installed in 2021.

Government advisors say that growth will depend on several factors. Electricity must become cheaper. Discounts on upfront costs need to be sustained. Manufacturers should be required to produce more heat pumps. And, most importantly, the workforce must expand with enough skilled and qualified installers.

Without these measures, confidence among energy users remains low. According to Wavin’s research, just over a quarter of UK customers, 27 percent, say sustainability is a priority when choosing heating technologies. In the Netherlands, by contrast, more than half of customers rank sustainability as a top concern.

Even more telling is that only 6 percent of UK customers actively ask for sustainable energy solutions as part of their installation packages.

The company’s business development director, Martyn Neil, believes this could change significantly in the coming months. He said:  “Whilst this new report shows the UK has taken time to get going, the Future Homes Standard will see the UK surge to the top of the leaderboard in just a matter of years.

“This means a wave of new customers for installers, all seeking solutions which will cut energy bills in the long run.”

Looking ahead, the Future Homes Standard is scheduled for finalisation by late 2025, with phased implementation between 2026 and 2028. However, the challenge is immense. Roughly 80 percent of the buildings that will stand in the UK in 2050 already exist today. This means that retrofitting, rather than just new construction, must carry a significant portion of the load.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is preparing a new Warm Homes Plan to address that reality. The plan is due for release in autumn 2025.

The government has pledged up to £13.2 billion over the next five years for the initiative. Around £3.2 billion will be invested in energy-efficiency measures during 2025 and 2026, benefiting approximately 300,000 homes, with a particular emphasis on social housing.

Grants will be targeted at social housing residents, low-income households, and renters, supporting insulation improvements as well as access to low-carbon heating systems. Funding will be delivered through the Warm Homes: Social Housing Fund and the Warm Homes: Local Grant.

Finally, the Warm Homes Plan will establish higher efficiency standards for both new heat pumps and boilers, further advancing the industry's sustainability.