Ambitions Fade as World Falls Behind on 2030 Renewable Energy Target

Efforts to triple global renewable energy capacity by the end of this decade are lagging significantly, with new research urging governments to set more ambitious and concrete targets. According to a new analysis by energy think tank Ember, most countries have made little progress since COP28, where more than 120 nations pledged to scale up renewables in what was called the Global Decarbonisation Accelerator.

Since that landmark agreement, global renewable energy ambitions have grown by a mere two per cent. In real terms, current national targets now total 7.4 terawatts for 2030. That figure is more than double the 3.4 terawatts installed back in 2022, but it still falls far short of what is needed to meet the international goal of tripling clean energy capacity.

Ember’s global electricity analyst, Dr. Katye Altieri, said: “The purpose of a national renewables target is less so to force more renewables to be built, but rather to make sure they are built smarter. It can help the government plan for the best place to build renewables and plan for grid and flexibility to integrate the renewables, and also to help companies invest in supply chains, making for a cheaper and more secure electricity system.

The International Energy Agency released its update earlier this year, stating that national and regional governments are collectively aiming for 8,000 gigawatts by 2030. However, Ember’s latest report casts doubt on that figure, suggesting actual commitments are lower than what is being publicly stated.

A major issue lies in the disconnect between long-term ambitions and the formal commitments governments have made. Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, are the official roadmaps submitted under the Paris Agreement. These documents are intended to outline each country's plan for contributing its fair share to emissions reductions. As of now, NDCs only account for 1,300 gigawatts of renewable energy by the end of this decade, a small fraction of what is needed.

Only 22 countries have updated their renewable energy targets since COP28, with most of these updates occurring within the European Union. The United States has yet to set a national clean energy target for 2030 and is unlikely to do so under the current administration. China is in the process of finalising its next five-year energy plan, which is expected to include a formal target for clean energy deployment.

Earlier this year, the International Renewable Energy Agency published its annual Renewable Capacity Statistics report. According to the 2025 edition, global renewable power capacity now stands at roughly 4.5 terawatts. That includes significant growth in solar and wind energy, which together accounted for nearly all of the new capacity added in 2024. Solar saw a massive 32 per cent jump, reaching over 1,860 gigawatts, while wind grew by just over 11 per cent.

Despite these gains, progress remains far below the levels needed. IRENA estimates that the world needs to reach 11.2 terawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030 to stay on track with the tripling goal. Current growth rates simply do not close that gap.

Complicating matters further is the ongoing financial support for fossil fuels. Critics say this undermines global climate commitments. One of the most prominent examples is the United Arab Emirates, which will host COP28.

According to Global Witness, the country aimed to close around $100 billion in oil, gas, and petrochemical deals in 2023. These deals were facilitated through ADNOC, the state-owned energy company. They involved a range of international partners, including the United Kingdom, Egypt, Azerbaijan and Brazil, which is set to host COP30.

While countries continue to make lofty promises about a greener future, the reality on the ground paints a more complex and contradictory picture. Time is running out, and without urgent course correction, the goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 may soon slip out of reach.